Trump wins a second term in office
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
- PseudonymousUser estimated 78% on 2019-06-05
- pranomostro estimated 45% on 2019-06-05
- lettergram estimated 60% on 2019-06-10
- stepan estimated 48% on 2019-06-11
- holomanga estimated 42% and said “Any reason to believe a probably above PredictIt’s?” on 2019-06-12
- davatk estimated 35% on 2019-06-13
- PseudonymousUser said “Any good reason not to buy Tulip bulbs, Holo?” on 2019-06-14
- two2thehead said “This prediction needs clarification. What happens if he is impeached in the first term or doesn’t run? Is the prediction judged or withdrawn?” on 2019-06-14
- jamesrom estimated 90% on 2019-06-14
- PseudonymousUser said “Two2thehead: the outcome is judged as true if an election is held, and he runs, and he wins. Otherwise, it is marked as false. In no event will it be withdrawn. ” on 2019-06-14
- two2thehead estimated 45% and said “Gotcha” on 2019-06-15
- Cato said “@two2thehead: So in the unlikely event that he wins without running (because of faithless electors), this will be marked wrong?” on 2019-06-15
- two2thehead said “Excellent question. I’m tempted to say yes, but I’ll defer to Tapetum-Lucidum.” on 2019-06-15
- Baeboo estimated 45% on 2019-06-18
- objclone estimated 75% on 2019-06-18
- holycow81 estimated 60% on 2019-06-18
- PseudonymousUser said “Cato: in that event, yes, it would be marked wrong. ” on 2019-06-23
- Cato said “@Tapetum-Lucidum: OK, thanks.” on 2019-06-24
- true estimated 30% on 2019-06-26
- chemotaxis101 estimated 55% on 2019-06-30
- PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2019-09-23
- PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2019-10-11
- PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2019-12-19
- holomanga estimated 50% and said “Certainly; Tulip bulbs are efficiently priced, and therefore in expectation they won’t become more valuable in the future. ” on 2019-12-31
- Baeboo estimated 47% on 2020-03-21
- sty.silver estimated 40% and said “Going 10-ish percent below the BetFair’s prediction based on people still having illusions that Coronavirus might not be that big of a deal” on 2020-03-21
- qznc said “The Economist gives it 15% https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president” on 2020-06-12
- qznc estimated 40% on 2020-06-12
- PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2020-06-13
- EloiseRosen estimated 50% on 2020-06-14
- PseudonymousUser estimated 45% on 2020-06-15
- JohnGreer estimated 55% on 2020-06-18
- InquilineKea estimated 15% on 2020-06-20
- MichaelBlack estimated 55% on 2020-06-23
- ayegill estimated 35% on 2020-07-16
- NickN estimated 65% on 2020-08-28
- avi estimated 0% on 2020-11-06
- avi judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-07.