Eliud Kipchoge's October 2019 “Ineos 1:59 Challenge” marathon time will be less than 2:00:00

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-07-04; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-12.

• WilliamKiely estimated 50% on 2019-07-04
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-07-04
• Bruno Parga estimated 70% and said “Although certainly a major feat, this wouldn’t be exactly comparable to competitive races, right?” on 2019-07-05
• WilliamKiely said “He ran 2:00:25 in Nike’s Breaking2 event in 2017. In this event he was drafting runners who started mid-race, so it doesn’t qualify as an official time. I don’t know the details for the 1:59 Challenge, but assume there will be similar advantages.” on 2019-07-09
• WilliamKiely estimated 51% and said “Naive prediction” on 2019-07-09
• WilliamKiely estimated 60% on 2019-09-18
• WilliamKiely said “Half marathon WR this week set at 58:00” on 2019-09-18
• WilliamKiely estimated 65% and said “58:01* half marathon WR September 15th. Also: Kenenisa Bekele Misses World Record By 2 Seconds at the Berlin Marathon on 9/29/19 2:01:41” on 2019-10-02
• Bruno Parga said “He covered the distance of a marathon in 1:59:40.2.” on 2019-10-12
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2019-10-12.