Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2019-08-12
• PseudonymousUser said “those e.g. are non-exhaustive, meant to exclude ungrounded conspiracy theorist epistemology” on 2019-08-12
• PseudonymousUser said “https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/jeffrey-epstein-part-larger-suicide-problem/595918/” on 2019-08-12
• pranomostro estimated 3% on 2019-08-12
• pranomostro said “~30% for him being murdered.” on 2019-08-12
• HonoreDB estimated 8% on 2019-08-12
• jbeshir estimated 3% on 2019-08-15
• stepan estimated 1% on 2019-09-10
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2019-09-10
• credunkist estimated 8% on 2019-09-17
• Athrithalix estimated 5% on 2019-11-25
• galen estimated 5% on 2019-11-26
• stepan estimated 5% on 2020-02-24
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2020-05-27
• jamesrom estimated 0% and said “P(murder) * P(cover up) * P(leaking/confession before 2022) ≈ 0” on 2020-07-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2020-07-14
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-01.