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I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.

Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 3000-01-01

  • pranomostro estimated 99% on 2019-08-29
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2019-08-31
  • WilliamKiely estimated 100% and said “My credence to the closest order of magnitude just using a simple base-rate forecast: 99.99%. and assuming climate change will kill 1 million/year on average over the next 80 years. In reality, I’m probably safer than average.on 2019-09-04
  • stepan estimated 100% on 2019-09-10
  • WilliamKiely said “Correcting my above comment to say that pranomostro is probably safer than average from climate change, since the forecast is about the person who created this prediction, not me.on 2019-09-11
  • Baeboo estimated 100% on 2019-09-11
  • wizzwizz4 estimated 100% and said “If I’m dead, this won’t matter. So, conditional on me remaining alive…on 2019-10-28
  • wizzwizz4 estimated 99% and said “Oh, this is about pranomostro?on 2020-03-26
  • sty.silver said “I’m pretty sure the chance is significantly lower than 99.9%. Climate change has the potential to trigger an existential risk indirectly – unless that wouldn’t count. it doesn’t lend itself well to a prediction either way.on 2020-03-26