[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] attendance to exceed that of 2019, conditional on vigil being held

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.

• Cato estimated 65% on 2019-09-18
• Cato said “2019 attendance was 180k (according to organizers) and 37k (according to police). Prediction is true if either source reports a larger figure than its 2019 figure.” on 2019-09-18
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-09-22
• Cato estimated 50% on 2019-11-20
• Cato estimated 52% on 2019-12-06
• Cato estimated 63% on 2020-02-29
• Cato said “https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52920083” on 2020-06-05
• Cato said “I couldn’t find a better estimate than “tens of thousands.” This phrasing, coupled with various images online, suggest that the attendance was far lower than last year’s 180k.” on 2020-06-05
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-06-05.