[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] attendance to exceed that of 2019, conditional on vigil being held

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.

  • Cato estimated 65% on 2019-09-18
  • Cato said “2019 attendance was 180k (according to organizers) and 37k (according to police). Prediction is true if either source reports a larger figure than its 2019 figure.on 2019-09-18
  • pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-09-22
  • Cato estimated 50% on 2019-11-20
  • Cato estimated 52% on 2019-12-06
  • Cato estimated 63% on 2020-02-29
  • Cato said “https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52920083on 2020-06-05
  • Cato said “I couldn’t find a better estimate than “tens of thousands.” This phrasing, coupled with various images online, suggest that the attendance was far lower than last year’s 180k.on 2020-06-05
  • Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-06-05.

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