US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3.
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-22; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
- Cato estimated 60% on 2019-09-19
- Cato changed their prediction from “US Economy: NBER to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter after 2019 Q1.” on 2019-09-19
- synkarius estimated 15% and said “The wording of this is vague. Shouldn’t it be “any quarter” between X and Y dates? This site says the deadline is 2020/10/22.” on 2019-09-19
- synkarius said “Also, for some context:https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/” on 2019-09-19
- Cato said “@synkarius: What I mean is this: As of 2020-10-22, if the BEA has declared that US GDP shrank in any quarter in 2019 or any of the first three quarters of 2020 (relative to the previous quarter), then this prediction resolves as true.” on 2019-09-20
- Cato said “If BEA adjusts its GDP figures before the resolution date, then the adjusted figure governs.” on 2019-09-20
- Cato changed their prediction from “US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter after 2019 Q1.” on 2019-09-20
- Cato estimated 50% on 2019-09-27
- Cato estimated 45% on 2019-10-14
- Cato estimated 39% on 2019-11-20
- Cato estimated 38% on 2019-12-06
- Cato judged this prediction right on 2020-11-02.