[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.

• Cato estimated 80% on 2019-09-19
• Cato said “Verification: https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu” on 2019-09-19
• PseudonymousUser estimated 89% on 2019-09-20
• Cato estimated 77% on 2019-09-27
• Cato estimated 79% on 2019-09-27
• pranomostro estimated 85% on 2019-10-03
• pranomostro said “Linear regression over the discovery numbers since 2010 gives me 4357 exoplanets.” on 2019-10-03
• pranomostro said “lr(2020;lreg([[2009 429][2010 527][2011 662][2012 802][2013 925][2014 1786][2015 1901][2016 3201][2017 3350][2018 3638][2019 4057]]))” on 2019-10-03
• PseudonymousUser said “Your data points aren’t iid because you are using the cumulative count. This biases your OLS estimate towards older data because the model has to account for it multiple times. ” on 2019-10-05
• PseudonymousUser said “To obtain unbiased OLS estimates, take avg of the years’ differences and use this as your slope. Then use the first year’s amount as the intercept. ” on 2019-10-05
• PseudonymousUser said “This gives you the OLS estimate as a function of years since 2009. And it is an unbiased esimate, whereas without taking first differences, it’s not. ” on 2019-10-05
• Cato estimated 67% on 2019-10-14
• deoh estimated 80% on 2019-10-21
• Cato estimated 72% on 2019-11-20
• Bruno Parga estimated 90% on 2020-01-04
• Cato estimated 98% on 2020-07-14
• PseudonymousUser said “pranomostro, I was referring to this, by the way: https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.353.2946” on 2020-07-14
• Cato   judged this prediction right on 2020-11-02.