[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] no-deal Brexit having taken place

Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15

  • Cato estimated 27% on 2019-09-24
  • pranomostro estimated 30% on 2019-10-07
  • Cato estimated 32% on 2019-10-09
  • Medea estimated 25% on 2019-10-12
  • deoh estimated 50% on 2019-10-18
  • Cato estimated 21% on 2019-10-22
  • Cato estimated 28% on 2019-11-13
  • Cato estimated 67% on 2019-12-02
  • Cato said “Even though (a) Brexit has taken place and (b) there is no deal, the term “no-deal Brexit” referred to a cancellation of UK-EU customs union. As of today, UK is still participating in EU customs regulations and expects to continue until EOY.on 2020-03-16
  • Cato said “Therefore, I’m withdrawing this prediction.on 2020-03-16
  • Cato withdrew the prediction on 2020-03-16

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