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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16

Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.

  • Cato estimated 15% on 2019-09-26
  • Cato estimated 16% on 2019-10-08
  • pranomostro estimated 18% on 2019-10-09
  • Cato estimated 18% on 2019-10-14
  • Cato estimated 16% on 2019-11-20
  • Cato estimated 15% on 2019-12-06
  • Bruno Parga estimated 20% on 2020-01-04
  • Bruno Parga said “I now feel this is overconfident, but I can’t be bothered coming up with another distribution right now.” on 2020-01-04
  • Cato estimated 18% on 2020-05-28
  • Baeboo estimated 11% on 2020-05-28
  • Cato estimated 14% on 2020-06-29
  • Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-08.