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There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker.

Created by JohnGreer on 2019-10-04; known on 2019-11-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-09.

  • JohnGreer estimated 25% on 2019-10-04
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 6% on 2019-10-04
  • pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-10-05
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2019-10-10
  • Michael Dickens estimated 10% and said “On the one hand, the base rate is really low. On the other hand, the media is promoting the idea that a shooting will happen, which is unprecedented AFAIK and could encourage people.” on 2019-10-13
  • EvanWard97 estimated 8% and said “This is based on existing forecasts and discounted for the time that has already passed without a shooting.” on 2019-10-15
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-11-09.