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All US-China trade war tariffs (imposed since June 2018) are not in effect

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-01.

  • Cato estimated 40% on 2019-10-11
  • pranomostro estimated 32% on 2019-10-14
  • Cato estimated 52% on 2019-11-20
  • Cato estimated 57% on 2019-12-06
  • Bruno Parga estimated 50% on 2020-01-04
  • Bruno Parga said “What happens if the current tariffs are lifted but new ones imposed?on 2020-01-04
  • Cato said “If any tariffs that were imposed between June 2018 and the deadline are in effect, then this prediction is false—whether they were imposed in or after June 2018.on 2020-01-10
  • Cato said “It’s also false if the tariff rate is reduced, rather than the tariff itself being eliminated.on 2020-01-10
  • Cato said “But it’s true if the tariffs are suspended when the deadline arrives, even if the suspension is explicitly temporary.on 2020-01-10
  • Cato said “I’m trying to treat this in a commercial manner—if I were a firm with a shipment for to be delivered on the deadline, would I need to pay extra or not?on 2020-01-10
  • Cato estimated 44% on 2020-01-10
  • Cato estimated 43% on 2020-02-29
  • Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-07-01.