The Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before the end of June 2020

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-19; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-04.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 87% on 2019-10-19
• PseudonymousUser said “To be clear, this prediction covers whether a vote is held at all—not on a particular outcome of that vote.” on 2019-10-19
• PseudonymousUser changed the deadline from “on 2020-07-01” and changed their prediction from “The Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before June 2020” on 2019-10-19
• pranomostro estimated 85% on 2019-10-19
• deoh estimated 90% on 2019-10-21
• supinf estimated 65% on 2019-10-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2019-12-19
• Bruno Parga estimated 92% on 2019-12-28
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 60% on 2020-01-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 89% on 2020-01-07
• peter_hurford estimated 90% on 2020-01-15
• peter_hurford estimated 95% and said “Updated based on the fact that the trial now seems definitely underway” on 2020-01-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2020-01-23
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2020-02-04.