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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 41 to 51

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.

  • Cato estimated 0% on 2019-11-22
  • pranomostro estimated 0% on 2019-12-02
  • Cato estimated 0% on 2019-12-26
  • Bruno Parga estimated 1% and said “If he wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, there’s a chance. Especially if Pete throws in the towel early on and Sanders and Warren split the leftist vote. 1% is too high, though (but 0 is too low).on 2020-01-04
  • Cato changed the deadline from “on 2020-06-02on 2020-05-28
  • Bruno Parga said “I love how wrong my analysis was.on 2020-08-31
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2020-08-31.
  • Bruno Parga said “For the record, Biden won DC and every state but IA, NH, VT, ND, CO, UT, NV and CA.on 2020-08-31