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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.

  • Cato estimated 72% on 2019-11-22
  • pranomostro estimated 65% on 2019-12-02
  • Cato estimated 99% on 2019-12-03
  • Cato estimated 0% on 2019-12-26
  • Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2020-01-04
  • Cato estimated 33% on 2020-01-07
  • peter_hurford estimated 5% on 2020-01-15
  • peter_hurford estimated 13% and said “I forgot that Amy Klobuchar has a good chance of winning Minnesota if she is still in the race then. 538 puts this at 11%.on 2020-01-18
  • Cato changed the deadline from “on 2020-06-02on 2020-05-28
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-08-31.