[The Economist predicts:] Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.

• Bruno Parga estimated 49% on 2020-01-02
• Bruno Parga said “I had never heard of this person and just copied the Economist’s prediction.” on 2020-01-02
• pranomostro estimated 40% and said “I’ve never heard of this person either, which reduces my confidence that this will happen.” on 2020-01-11
• Bruno Parga said “The website bugs when I try to edit it; this prediction end date is moved to 2022-01-01.” on 2020-09-13
• Bruno Parga said “He missed a drug test, was suspended and did not compete.” on 2021-08-17
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-08-17.