Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01

• Bruno Parga estimated 4% on 2020-01-03
• Bruno Parga said “Inspired by https://cutt.ly/LrueYJX.” on 2020-01-03
• Bruno Parga said “If anything happens to Musk and/or SpaceX, this remains true if technology like Falcon and Starship is crucial to the mission.” on 2020-01-03
• Bruno Parga said “Or if it is a direct ancestor tech to whatever ship eventually lands on Mars. // Also, this counts only if humans arrive at Mars alive and set foot before the end date.” on 2020-01-03
• qznc estimated 5% on 2020-01-03
• optimaton estimated 2% on 2020-01-04
• sty.silver estimated 10% on 2020-01-08
• Medea estimated 5% on 2020-01-09
• sortega estimated 2% on 2020-01-11
• pranomostro estimated 25% on 2020-01-11
• avi estimated 60% on 2020-02-22
• NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-16
• Reactionaryhistorian said “60%” on 2020-08-28
• two2thehead said “Reactionaryhistorian you typed your estimate in the wrong field.” on 2020-08-29
• Reactionaryhistorian estimated 60% on 2020-08-29
• Bruno Parga estimated 7% on 2021-01-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2021-01-01
• JoshuaZ said “Note https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNAGysp1x0Q&lc=Ugw3DABUQsAEOXj42Q14AaABAg.9FeJa4DDkkI9FeWadl4Agr predicts a minimum of 2034, but CSS seems to be in the Musk-can’t-do-anything-right camp. ” on 2021-01-01