in four months, the consensus among the national security community will be that we (i.e., the US) are not any more meaningfully said to be “at war” with Iran than we are now on 5 Jan 2020.

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-06.

• peter_hurford estimated 70% on 2020-01-06
• Prickman estimated 80% on 2020-01-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 41% on 2020-01-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 30% on 2020-01-08
• Cato said “How will this be measured?” on 2020-01-08
• pranomostro estimated 74% on 2020-01-11
• pranomostro said “@Cato: There’s this question on Metaculus with some more strict resolution criteria, we could use those: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3462/will-there-be-a-us-iran-war-in-2020/” on 2020-01-11
• bcongdon estimated 80% on 2020-01-14
• peter_hurford said “@Cato @pranomostro Yes, we will go with the Metaculus definition.” on 2020-01-14
• peter_hurford estimated 10% on 2020-01-14
• peter_hurford estimated 90% and said “Oops, my previous 10% meant to be 90%” on 2020-01-15
• Bruno Parga estimated 90% on 2020-01-26
• stepan estimated 90% on 2020-02-24
• peter_hurford   judged this prediction right on 2020-05-06.