Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02

Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 15 days ago.

  • jbeshir estimated 20% on 2020-01-11
  • synkarius estimated 5% on 2020-01-12
  • pranomostro estimated 12% on 2020-01-17
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 3% 27 days ago
  • peter_hurford estimated 1% and said “Seems unlikely they would strike again in such a short time frame after just striking and not striking for a bit. My guess is that future Iran attacks will come with plausible deniability (c.f., Saudi Arabia strike) and/or not be against the US.27 days ago
  • peter_hurford said “Also I suspect few attacks within this particular time frame.27 days ago
  • jbeshir estimated 5% 26 days ago
  • peter_hurford said “Is an embassy a military base? Also Iran hasn’t been officially implicated yet. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/26/politics/rocket-hits-us-embassy-compound-baghdad/index.html22 days ago
  • jbeshir said “I’d say no, and also that them neither being implicated nor admitting to it, fails the prediction.15 days ago
  • jbeshir   judged this prediction wrong 15 days ago.

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