Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02

Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.

• jbeshir estimated 20% on 2020-01-11
• synkarius estimated 5% on 2020-01-12
• pranomostro estimated 12% on 2020-01-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2020-01-22
• peter_hurford estimated 1% and said “Seems unlikely they would strike again in such a short time frame after just striking and not striking for a bit. My guess is that future Iran attacks will come with plausible deniability (c.f., Saudi Arabia strike) and/or not be against the US.” on 2020-01-22
• peter_hurford said “Also I suspect few attacks within this particular time frame.” on 2020-01-22
• jbeshir estimated 5% on 2020-01-23
• peter_hurford said “Is an embassy a military base? Also Iran hasn’t been officially implicated yet. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/26/politics/rocket-hits-us-embassy-compound-baghdad/index.html” on 2020-01-27
• jbeshir said “I’d say no, and also that them neither being implicated nor admitting to it, fails the prediction.” on 2020-02-03
• jbeshir   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-02-03.