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Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02

Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.

  • jbeshir estimated 20% on 2020-01-11
  • synkarius estimated 5% on 2020-01-12
  • pranomostro estimated 12% on 2020-01-17
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2020-01-22
  • peter_hurford estimated 1% and said “Seems unlikely they would strike again in such a short time frame after just striking and not striking for a bit. My guess is that future Iran attacks will come with plausible deniability (c.f., Saudi Arabia strike) and/or not be against the US.on 2020-01-22
  • peter_hurford said “Also I suspect few attacks within this particular time frame.on 2020-01-22
  • jbeshir estimated 5% on 2020-01-23
  • peter_hurford said “Is an embassy a military base? Also Iran hasn’t been officially implicated yet. 2020-01-27
  • jbeshir said “I’d say no, and also that them neither being implicated nor admitting to it, fails the prediction.on 2020-02-03
  • jbeshir   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-02-03.