A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known in 14 days

  • peter_hurford estimated 10% on 2020-01-14
  • pranomostro estimated 20% and said “This seems to have happened 2 times in the last 10 elections, and 4 times in the last 20: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PartyVotes-Presidents.pngon 2020-01-17
  • pranomostro said “Eyeballing, of course.on 2020-01-17
  • Bruno Parga estimated 4% on 2020-01-26
  • HonoreDB estimated 8% on 2020-02-24
  • NickN estimated 30% on 2020-08-16
  • Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2020-08-31
  • Baeboo estimated 9% on 2020-08-31
  • product estimated 1% on 2020-09-01
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% and said “In 2016, with two of the least popular candidates in history, no third party even hit 4%on 2020-09-01
  • PlacidPlatypus said “@pranomostro we have a lot more to go on than just the base rate. In 1992 Perot didn’t just show up out of nowhere on election day- he ran a major campaign and in fact did better in earlier polls than in the final results.on 2020-09-01
  • PlacidPlatypus said “If there was anything like that this year we would know by now.on 2020-09-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2020-09-01
  • TracyPoff estimated 5% on 2020-09-02

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