Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

• peter_hurford estimated 30% on 2020-01-15
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2020-01-17
• peter_hurford estimated 5% and said “The Good Judgement Open forecast is 5% https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1494-before-1-january-2021-will-a-date-be-set-for-a-referendum-on-scotland-s-status-within-the-united-kingdom” on 2020-01-18
• peter_hurford   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-03.