After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%).
Created by peter_hurford 2 days ago; known on 2020-07-15
- peter_hurford estimated 80% 2 days ago
- peter_hurford said “That is, I don’t expect the choice of nominee or events between now and the end of the primary to matter much.” 2 days ago
- pranomostro estimated 85% and said “Unwise from a forecasting standpoint, making this kind of prediction solidifies the trump estimate and makes later updating harder.” about 9 hours ago
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