After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%).

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04.

  • peter_hurford estimated 80% on 2020-01-15
  • peter_hurford said “That is, I don’t expect the choice of nominee or events between now and the end of the primary to matter much.on 2020-01-15
  • pranomostro estimated 85% and said “Unwise from a forecasting standpoint, making this kind of prediction solidifies the trump estimate and makes later updating harder.on 2020-01-17
  • peter_hurford estimated 50% and said “I forgot that by the time of the nomination there should be reasonably decent polling that could be predictive, as well as potentially a 538 model. This could shape my view a lot.on 2020-01-18
  • peter_hurford estimated 40% and said “Based on the model in “Electability and the Senate in 2020″ https://towardsdatascience.com/electability-the-senate-in-2020-a69622a04881 I have shifted my prediction from 50% to 40%, thinking candidate quality might matter more than I thought.on 2020-01-20
  • peter_hurford estimated 45% and said “I have shifted my prediction up to 45% (from 40%) after looking at the spread of conditional probabilities in betting markets https://primary.guide/on 2020-01-20
  • peter_hurford   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-09-04.
  • peter_hurford said “I ended up assigning Trump a 30% chance to win after the nomination, per 538’s latest forecast. This just barely fell outside the range.on 2020-09-04

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