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[Personal] I will be underconfident across the past 6 personal predictions

Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

  • sty.silver estimated 40% on 2020-01-16
  • sty.silver said “Underconfident :<=> the sum of the percentages is higher than the number of predictions that came true” on 2020-01-16
  • sty.silver   judged this prediction right on 2020-12-31.