California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020
- peter_hurford estimated 18% on 2020-01-18
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 25% on 2020-01-21
- pranomostro estimated 15% and said “I should look up what the baserate for this is. Also, exactly one death or >=1 deaths? Also, (1 death OR >$1B in damage) or (1 death XOR >$1B in damage)?” on 2020-01-21
- peter_hurford judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-03.
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