California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

• peter_hurford estimated 18% on 2020-01-18
• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% on 2020-01-21
• pranomostro estimated 15% and said “I should look up what the baserate for this is. Also, exactly one death or >=1 deaths? Also, (1 death OR >$1B in damage) or (1 death XOR >$1B in damage)?” on 2020-01-21
• peter_hurford   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-03.