[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000

Created by nortriptyline2 27 days ago; known on 2021-01-01

  • nortriptyline2 estimated 65% 27 days ago
  • nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-3127 days ago
  • nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-3127 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% 27 days ago
  • Bruno Parga estimated 0% and said “Not literally zero. If things change such that this seems it’s minimally likely, I’ll hurry up with my plan of implementing more granular odds on this site.27 days ago
  • peter_hurford estimated 0% and said “2003 SARS killed 800 people. This strain is better contained and less virulent. Hard to imagine this reaching >500K.27 days ago
  • nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-0127 days ago
  • nortriptyline2 estimated 1% 27 days ago
  • pranomostro estimated 1% 27 days ago
  • nortriptyline2 estimated 40% 24 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 0% 24 days ago
  • Bruno Parga estimated 28% 23 days ago
  • Bruno Parga said “Updating based on https://cutt.ly/9rRIWJe23 days ago
  • joenot443 estimated 2% 23 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 1% 23 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 0% 23 days ago
  • Truism estimated 90% and said “This disease appears to have an R0 of 1.4-2.5. H1N1 had 1.4-1.6 and a mortality rate of 0.03. H1N1 is agreed to have killed about 250,000. If nCoV is only as lethal as seasonal flu, it will easily exceed 500,000.21 days ago
  • Truism said “The 10% doubt is that an effective cure or vaccine is discovered, mass produced and deployed prior to the disease spreading to Africa.21 days ago
  • krazemon estimated 10% 20 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% 15 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 0% 14 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 1% 14 days ago
  • Bruno Parga estimated 7% 11 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 1% 10 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 0% 7 days ago
  • Medea estimated 5% 6 days ago

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction