[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-29.
- nortriptyline2 estimated 65% on 2020-01-22
- nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-31” on 2020-01-23
- nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-31” on 2020-01-23
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2020-01-23
- Bruno Parga estimated 0% and said “Not literally zero. If things change such that this seems it’s minimally likely, I’ll hurry up with my plan of implementing more granular odds on this site.” on 2020-01-23
- peter_hurford estimated 0% and said “2003 SARS killed 800 people. This strain is better contained and less virulent. Hard to imagine this reaching >500K.” on 2020-01-23
- nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-01” on 2020-01-23
- nortriptyline2 estimated 1% on 2020-01-23
- pranomostro estimated 1% on 2020-01-23
- nortriptyline2 estimated 40% on 2020-01-26
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-01-26
- Bruno Parga estimated 28% on 2020-01-27
- Bruno Parga said “Updating based on https://cutt.ly/9rRIWJe” on 2020-01-27
- joenot443 estimated 2% on 2020-01-27
- Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-01-27
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-01-27
- Truism estimated 90% and said “This disease appears to have an R0 of 1.4-2.5. H1N1 had 1.4-1.6 and a mortality rate of 0.03. H1N1 is agreed to have killed about 250,000. If nCoV is only as lethal as seasonal flu, it will easily exceed 500,000.” on 2020-01-29
- Truism said “The 10% doubt is that an effective cure or vaccine is discovered, mass produced and deployed prior to the disease spreading to Africa.” on 2020-01-29
- krazemon estimated 10% on 2020-01-30
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2020-02-04
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-02-05
- Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-02-05
- Bruno Parga estimated 7% on 2020-02-07
- Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-02-09
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-02-11
- Medea estimated 5% on 2020-02-13
- avi estimated 5% on 2020-02-22
- avi estimated 0% on 2020-02-22
- sty.silver estimated 50% on 2020-03-02
- Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-03-03
- PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2020-03-03
- Baeboo estimated 18% on 2020-03-05
- PseudonymousUser estimated 85% on 2020-03-14
- Bruno Parga estimated 50% on 2020-03-19
- Baeboo estimated 99% on 2020-03-21
- Baeboo estimated 97% on 2020-03-26
- Baeboo estimated 82% on 2020-04-03
- credunkist estimated 95% on 2020-04-03
- Bruno Parga estimated 91% on 2020-04-05
- Baeboo estimated 77% on 2020-04-07
- Baeboo estimated 74% on 2020-04-13
- nortriptyline2 estimated 90% on 2020-04-14
- Baeboo estimated 79% on 2020-04-19
- Baeboo estimated 82% on 2020-04-25
- Baeboo estimated 84% on 2020-05-06
- Bruno Parga estimated 97% on 2020-05-11
- Baeboo estimated 82% on 2020-05-11
- Baeboo estimated 81% on 2020-05-27
- Baeboo estimated 94% on 2020-06-03
- Baeboo estimated 98% on 2020-06-12
- qznc estimated 98% on 2020-06-12
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction right on 2020-06-29.