[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000

Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.

  • nortriptyline2 estimated 65% on 2020-01-22
  • nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22
  • nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-31on 2020-01-23
  • nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-31on 2020-01-23
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2020-01-23
  • Bruno Parga estimated 0% and said “Not literally zero. If things change such that this seems it’s minimally likely, I’ll hurry up with my plan of implementing more granular odds on this site.on 2020-01-23
  • peter_hurford estimated 0% and said “2003 SARS killed 800 people. This strain is better contained and less virulent. Hard to imagine this reaching >500K.on 2020-01-23
  • nortriptyline2 estimated 1% on 2020-01-23
  • pranomostro estimated 1% on 2020-01-23
  • nortriptyline2 estimated 40% on 2020-01-26
  • Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-01-26
  • Bruno Parga estimated 28% on 2020-01-27
  • Bruno Parga said “Updating based on https://cutt.ly/9rRIWJeon 2020-01-27
  • joenot443 estimated 2% on 2020-01-27
  • Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-01-27
  • Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-01-27
  • Truism estimated 90% and said “This disease appears to have an R0 of 1.4-2.5. H1N1 had 1.4-1.6 and a mortality rate of 0.03. H1N1 is agreed to have killed about 250,000. If nCoV is only as lethal as seasonal flu, it will easily exceed 500,000.on 2020-01-29
  • Truism said “The 10% doubt is that an effective cure or vaccine is discovered, mass produced and deployed prior to the disease spreading to Africa.on 2020-01-29
  • krazemon estimated 10% on 2020-01-30
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2020-02-04
  • Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-02-05
  • Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-02-05
  • Bruno Parga estimated 7% on 2020-02-07
  • Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-02-09
  • Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-02-11
  • Medea estimated 5% on 2020-02-13
  • avi estimated 5% on 2020-02-22
  • avi estimated 0% on 2020-02-22
  • sty.silver estimated 50% on 2020-03-02
  • Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-03-03
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 80% on 2020-03-03
  • Baeboo estimated 18% on 2020-03-05
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 85% on 2020-03-14
  • Bruno Parga estimated 50% on 2020-03-19
  • Baeboo estimated 99% on 2020-03-21
  • Baeboo estimated 97% on 2020-03-26
  • Baeboo estimated 82% on 2020-04-03
  • credunkist estimated 95% on 2020-04-03
  • Bruno Parga estimated 91% on 2020-04-05
  • Baeboo estimated 77% on 2020-04-07
  • Baeboo estimated 74% on 2020-04-13
  • nortriptyline2 estimated 90% on 2020-04-14
  • Baeboo estimated 79% on 2020-04-19
  • Baeboo estimated 82% on 2020-04-25
  • Baeboo estimated 84% on 2020-05-06
  • Bruno Parga estimated 97% on 2020-05-11
  • Baeboo estimated 82% on 2020-05-11
  • Baeboo estimated 81% on 2020-05-27
  • Baeboo estimated 94% on 2020-06-03
  • Baeboo estimated 98% on 2020-06-12
  • qznc estimated 98% on 2020-06-12
  • Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction right on 2020-06-29.

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