[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
- nortriptyline2 estimated 50% on 2020-01-22
- nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-31” on 2020-01-23
- nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-31” on 2020-01-23
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2020-01-23
- Bruno Parga estimated 0% on 2020-01-23
- peter_hurford estimated 0% and said “2003 SARS killed 800 people. This strain is better contained and less virulent. Hard to imagine this reaching >1M.” on 2020-01-23
- nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-01” on 2020-01-23
- nortriptyline2 estimated 1% on 2020-01-23
- pranomostro estimated 0% on 2020-01-23
- Bruno Parga estimated 20% on 2020-01-27
- Bruno Parga said “Updating based on https://cutt.ly/9rRIWJe” on 2020-01-27
- Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-01-27
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-01-27
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2020-02-04
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-02-05
- Bruno Parga estimated 5% on 2020-02-07
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-02-09
- Medea estimated 1% on 2020-02-13
- avi estimated 0% on 2020-02-22
- stepan estimated 2% on 2020-02-24
- sty.silver estimated 15% on 2020-03-01
- Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-03-03
- PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2020-03-03
- Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-03-05
- PseudonymousUser estimated 65% on 2020-03-14
- sty.silver estimated 70% on 2020-03-14
- qznc estimated 20% on 2020-03-14
- Bruno Parga estimated 45% on 2020-03-19
- Baeboo estimated 94% on 2020-03-21
- Baeboo estimated 82% on 2020-03-26
- Baeboo estimated 68% on 2020-04-03
- credunkist estimated 62% on 2020-04-03
- Bruno Parga estimated 80% on 2020-04-05
- qznc estimated 40% on 2020-04-05
- Baeboo estimated 65% on 2020-04-07
- Baeboo estimated 61% on 2020-04-13
- nortriptyline2 estimated 80% on 2020-04-14
- Baeboo estimated 65% on 2020-04-19
- Baeboo estimated 67% on 2020-04-25
- Baeboo estimated 68% on 2020-05-06
- qznc estimated 60% on 2020-05-08
- Bruno Parga estimated 85% on 2020-05-11
- Baeboo estimated 62% on 2020-05-11
- Baeboo estimated 43% on 2020-05-27
- Baeboo estimated 46% on 2020-06-03
- Baeboo estimated 49% on 2020-06-12
- NickN estimated 98% on 2020-08-16
- Bruno Parga estimated 100% and said “We’re at 914k. Even if a vaccine was found today, there wouldn’t be time to deploy it to prevent it reaching 1M.” on 2020-09-11
- Baeboo estimated 99% on 2020-09-11
- Baeboo judged this prediction right on 2020-11-09.