[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01

• WilliamKiely estimated 1% on 2020-01-23
• WilliamKiely said “[BG] 4%” on 2020-01-23
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2020-01-24
• peter_hurford estimated 1% on 2020-01-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2020-01-28
• mroverlord estimated 0% on 2020-01-30
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2020-02-05
• Medea estimated 1% on 2020-02-13
• WilliamKiely said “[TV] 3%” on 2020-02-16
• jamesrom said “What’s the point of that condition? It’s baked into the premise.” on 2020-05-04
• WilliamKiely said “The point of the condition is that if there’s a plan (intent or expectation) for the person to return to Earth then it doesn’t count.” on 2021-02-06