[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01

  • WilliamKiely estimated 1% on 2020-01-23
  • WilliamKiely said “[BG] 4%on 2020-01-23
  • Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2020-01-24
  • peter_hurford estimated 1% on 2020-01-26
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2020-01-28
  • mroverlord estimated 0% on 2020-01-30
  • pranomostro estimated 1% on 2020-02-05
  • Medea estimated 1% on 2020-02-13
  • WilliamKiely said “[TV] 3%on 2020-02-16
  • jamesrom said “What’s the point of that condition? It’s baked into the premise.on 2020-05-04
  • WilliamKiely said “The point of the condition is that if there’s a plan (intent or expectation) for the person to return to Earth then it doesn’t count.21 days ago

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