[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01

• WilliamKiely estimated 7% on 2020-01-23
• WilliamKiely said “[BG] 80%” on 2020-01-23
• Bruno Parga estimated 15% on 2020-01-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2020-01-28
• mroverlord estimated 10% on 2020-01-30
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2020-02-05
• Medea estimated 3% on 2020-02-13
• WilliamKiely said “[TV] 12%” on 2020-02-16
• Bruno Parga estimated 9% on 2021-01-01
• WilliamKiely estimated 12% on 2021-02-06