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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01

  • WilliamKiely estimated 15% on 2020-01-23
  • WilliamKiely said “[BG] 99%on 2020-01-23
  • Bruno Parga estimated 30% on 2020-01-24
  • PseudonymousUser said “Hmm. Intent and expectation are quite different. One is a goal, the other is just pessimism. on 2020-01-28
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2020-01-28
  • mroverlord estimated 25% on 2020-01-30
  • pranomostro estimated 25% on 2020-02-05
  • WilliamKiely said “Clarification: “intent/expectation” is meant to mean “intent and expectation”.on 2020-02-05
  • WilliamKiely said “It’s supposed to (judging by the original claim made by BG that incited me to write this prediction) look like a non-suicidal person moving to Mars with the plan of living there for the rest of their life (years).on 2020-02-05
  • WilliamKiely said “ (Though I’m fine with this resolving Right for a broader range of scenarios than that, such as if the person unexpectedly dies in less than a year of living on Mars, or even if they unexpectedly die in transit to Mars.)on 2020-02-05
  • Medea estimated 10% on 2020-02-13
  • WilliamKiely said “[TV] 17%on 2020-02-16
  • Bruno Parga said “I interpret this as ‘a rocket or some other form of transportation departs and inside of it there’s a person who knows there’s no plan for them to come back’. I’d say this is right even if said rocket explodes within one minute of launch.on 2021-01-01
  • Bruno Parga estimated 20% on 2021-01-01
  • WilliamKiely estimated 22% and said “Updating upwards because a lot could change before 2035.on 2021-02-06