[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035

Created by WilliamKiely 26 days ago; known on 2035-01-01

  • WilliamKiely estimated 15% 26 days ago
  • WilliamKiely said “[BG] 99%26 days ago
  • Bruno Parga estimated 30% 26 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Hmm. Intent and expectation are quite different. One is a goal, the other is just pessimism. 22 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 40% 22 days ago
  • mroverlord estimated 25% 19 days ago
  • pranomostro estimated 25% 14 days ago
  • WilliamKiely said “Clarification: “intent/expectation” is meant to mean “intent and expectation”.13 days ago
  • WilliamKiely said “It’s supposed to (judging by the original claim made by BG that incited me to write this prediction) look like a non-suicidal person moving to Mars with the plan of living there for the rest of their life (years).13 days ago
  • WilliamKiely said “ (Though I’m fine with this resolving Right for a broader range of scenarios than that, such as if the person unexpectedly dies in less than a year of living on Mars, or even if they unexpectedly die in transit to Mars.)13 days ago
  • Medea estimated 10% 6 days ago
  • WilliamKiely said “[TV] 17%2 days ago

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