The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2044-01-01

• Mati estimated 50% on 2020-02-23
• Mati estimated 78% and said “Actually, IIUC, we already have a Q_ext of 1.25, which means we could have a Q of >=1 if we used tritium (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor)).” on 2020-02-24
• pranomostro estimated 70% on 2020-03-05