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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020

Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.

  • suitecake estimated 15% on 2020-02-26
  • stepan estimated 25% on 2020-03-04
  • pranomostro estimated 8% on 2020-03-06
  • pranomostro estimated 84% and said “US has 236 cases (plague.com, 2020-03-06). It’s 25 days left until 2020-04-01. China had 287 cases on 2020-01-20, 25 days later, on 2020-02-15, they had 68.3k cases, and that with extreme quarantine measures.” on 2020-03-06
  • pranomostro said “US has 236 cases (plague.com, 2020-03-06). It’s 25 days left until 2020-04-01. China had 287 cases on 2020-01-20, 25 days later, on 2020-02-15, they had 68.3k cases, and that with extreme quarantine measures.” on 2020-03-06
  • pranomostro said “Unless the US is especially careful (or China in an especially bad situation), more than 10k cases seem nearly inevitable.” on 2020-03-06
  • suitecake estimated 30% and said “I now think it’s significantly likelier than 30% that there will, in fact, be more than 10k cases by April 1, but CDC results are lagging significantly behind aggregations like the Johns Hopkins ArcGIS dashboard.” on 2020-03-10
  • sabs81 estimated 50% on 2020-03-12
  • suitecake   judged this prediction right on 2020-03-21.