10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020

Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known 24 days ago; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.

  • suitecake estimated 40% on 2020-02-26
  • pranomostro estimated 90% on 2020-03-06
  • suitecake estimated 90% on 2020-03-10
  • suitecake estimated 60% and said “Looks like CDC is not aggregating data from the state-level (only 114 cases properly ‘confirmed,’ whereas Johns Hopkins puts the figure at 804). If they don’t aggregate at all, and defer testing to states, they might severely underreport caseson 2020-03-10
  • sabs81 estimated 25% on 2020-03-12
  • suitecake   judged this prediction right on 2020-03-21.

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