Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health

Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy 7 days ago.

  • sjy estimated 60% on 2020-03-02
  • sjy said “Not conditional on community transmission. The Department of Health is currently reporting that 1 Australian has died. https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alerton 2020-03-02
  • pranomostro said “This would mean ~>5000 infections (with a 1% death rate), up from ~60 today (2020-03-06). This paper (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316)) estimates a doubling time of 7 days, 60*2^((182-66)/7)=3932160on 2020-03-06
  • pranomostro said “(this is obviously way way too much, more than the current australian population of ~25 mio., but informative: if it spreads as much aswe think it does, it’ll pretty much infect everybody unfortunate enough).on 2020-03-06
  • pranomostro estimated 70% and said “So it really does depend on how competent the Australian government is in stopping this. Not a very good prospect.on 2020-03-06
  • jjjsjd estimated 95% on 2020-03-12
  • jazzsolo estimated 99% on 2020-03-13
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 80% on 2020-03-14
  • qznc estimated 60% on 2020-03-14
  • Stucwerk estimated 90% on 2020-03-16
  • sjy   judged this prediction right 7 days ago.

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