Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health

Created by sjy 27 days ago; known on 2020-06-30

  • sjy estimated 60% 27 days ago
  • sjy said “Not conditional on community transmission. The Department of Health is currently reporting that 1 Australian has died. https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert27 days ago
  • pranomostro said “This would mean ~>5000 infections (with a 1% death rate), up from ~60 today (2020-03-06). This paper (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316)) estimates a doubling time of 7 days, 60*2^((182-66)/7)=393216023 days ago
  • pranomostro said “(this is obviously way way too much, more than the current australian population of ~25 mio., but informative: if it spreads as much aswe think it does, it’ll pretty much infect everybody unfortunate enough).23 days ago
  • pranomostro estimated 70% and said “So it really does depend on how competent the Australian government is in stopping this. Not a very good prospect.23 days ago
  • jjjsjd estimated 95% 17 days ago
  • jazzsolo estimated 99% 16 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 80% 15 days ago
  • qznc estimated 60% 15 days ago
  • Stucwerk estimated 90% 13 days ago

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