Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health
Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-05-17.
- sjy estimated 60% on 2020-03-02
- sjy said “Not conditional on community transmission. The Department of Health is currently reporting that 1 Australian has died. https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert” on 2020-03-02
- pranomostro said “This would mean ~>5000 infections (with a 1% death rate), up from ~60 today (2020-03-06). This paper (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316)) estimates a doubling time of 7 days, 60*2^((182-66)/7)=3932160” on 2020-03-06
- pranomostro said “(this is obviously way way too much, more than the current australian population of ~25 mio., but informative: if it spreads as much aswe think it does, it’ll pretty much infect everybody unfortunate enough).” on 2020-03-06
- pranomostro estimated 70% and said “So it really does depend on how competent the Australian government is in stopping this. Not a very good prospect.” on 2020-03-06
- jjjsjd estimated 95% on 2020-03-12
- jazzsolo estimated 99% on 2020-03-13
- PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2020-03-14
- qznc estimated 60% on 2020-03-14
- Stucwerk estimated 90% on 2020-03-16
- sjy judged this prediction right on 2020-05-17.