<2M coronavirus deaths.

Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known 7 days ago; judged right by kjaques 7 days ago.

  • kjaques estimated 10% on 2020-03-19
  • pranomostro estimated 15% on 2020-03-20
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 23% on 2020-03-20
  • sty.silver estimated 10% and said “Unclear resolution criterion. What if the virus just stays around indefinitely like the flu?on 2020-03-20
  • Baeboo estimated 27% on 2020-03-21
  • Baeboo estimated 52% on 2020-03-26
  • holycow81 estimated 20% on 2020-03-26
  • stepan estimated 23% on 2020-03-29
  • Baeboo estimated 52% on 2020-04-03
  • Baeboo estimated 48% on 2020-04-03
  • overtone estimated 0% 8 days ago
  • kjaques   judged this prediction right 7 days ago.
  • kjaques said “It will still be < 2m corona virus deaths after another year7 days ago
  • sty.silver said “I call BS on resolving this as true. You don’t know what happens in a year. Or in five years. Or twenty years.4 days ago
  • sam_jaques said “The intention (not in the title) was “<2M coronavirus deaths by July 31st”, which I’m reasonably confident we know now (I don’t think deaths are that badly underreported)4 days ago
  • sty.silver said “I don’t disagree with that, but then the title was quite ambiguous.3 days ago

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