<2M coronavirus deaths.

Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.

• kjaques estimated 10% on 2020-03-19
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2020-03-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 23% on 2020-03-20
• sty.silver estimated 10% and said “Unclear resolution criterion. What if the virus just stays around indefinitely like the flu?” on 2020-03-20
• Baeboo estimated 27% on 2020-03-21
• Baeboo estimated 52% on 2020-03-26
• holycow81 estimated 20% on 2020-03-26
• stepan estimated 23% on 2020-03-29
• Baeboo estimated 52% on 2020-04-03
• Baeboo estimated 48% on 2020-04-03
• overtone estimated 0% on 2020-07-31
• kjaques   judged this prediction right on 2020-07-31.
• kjaques said “It will still be < 2m corona virus deaths after another year” on 2020-07-31
• sty.silver said “I call BS on resolving this as true. You don’t know what happens in a year. Or in five years. Or twenty years.” on 2020-08-03
• sam_jaques said “The intention (not in the title) was “<2M coronavirus deaths by July 31st”, which I’m reasonably confident we know now (I don’t think deaths are that badly underreported)” on 2020-08-03
• sty.silver said “I don’t disagree with that, but then the title was quite ambiguous.” on 2020-08-04