China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020.
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 60% on 2020-04-08
- jacobgreenleaf said “Faking means any of (1) cooking the books, or (2) intentionally withholding tests to live patients. Does not include “reclassification” or other reporting methodology changes” on 2020-04-08
- sortega estimated 70% on 2020-04-08
- Baeboo estimated 50% on 2020-04-09
- PhysicsMonster estimated 50% on 2020-04-09
- batemancapital estimated 40% on 2020-04-17
- credunkist estimated 40% on 2020-05-03
- kuudes judged this prediction right on 2021-01-01.
- kuudes said “https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2020/04/17/china-just-admitted-coronavirus-death-toll-in-wuhan-was-50-higher-than-reported/” on 2021-01-01
- kuudes said “hmm. that still says that confirmed cases data got more with amount way less than 30%” on 2021-01-01
- kuudes judged this prediction unknown on 2021-01-01.
- kuudes said “there is also https://www.firstpost.com/health/covid-19-cases-in-wuhan-mightve-been-10-times-higher-then-official-data-showed-chinese-cdc-report-9159971.html but it does not immediately say that they did so on purpose” on 2021-01-01
- jacobgreenleaf judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.
- jacobgreenleaf said “https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuhan-china-covid-intl/index.html“the documents provide no evidence of a deliberate attempt to obfuscate” — There is evidence of misclassification but not fabrication” on 2021-01-01
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