Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020.

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-10-22; judged wrong by Mathieu_Putz on 2021-03-21.

• Mathieu_Putz estimated 45% on 2020-05-28
• Mathieu_Putz said “(I conducted no more than 5 minutes of explicit research.)” on 2020-05-28
• Leo estimated 20% on 2020-06-03
• Mathieu_Putz estimated 25% on 2020-06-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2020-06-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 28% on 2020-06-19
• NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-15
• Mathieu_Putz   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-03-21.