By June 8, 2022, estimated US deaths for COVID-19 based on excess mortality will be less than 5 million deaths.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-07; known on 2022-06-15

• JoshuaZ estimated 84% on 2020-06-07
• JoshuaZ said “Context: Pasha K. considers this to be highly likely. K.W. considers it to be unlikely.” on 2020-06-07
• JoshuaZ said “Er, last comment reversed: PK considers likely to have more than 5 million, K.W. considers reverse to be more likely. ” on 2020-06-07
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2021-06-15” and changed their prediction from “By June 8, 2021, estimated US deaths for COVID-19 based on excess mortality will be less than 5 million deaths.” on 2020-06-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 86% and said “Updating percentage based on corrected timing. ” on 2020-06-07
• NickN estimated 88% on 2020-08-18
• JoshuaZ said “Marking as correct based on https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm . ” on 2022-06-15