North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 53% on 2020-06-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2020-06-09
• MultiplyByZer0 estimated 0% on 2020-06-12
• EloiseRosen estimated 4% on 2020-06-14
• Michal_Dubrawski estimated 0% on 2020-06-21
• azatris estimated 0% on 2020-06-23
• Medea estimated 3% on 2020-07-09
• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 21% on 2020-07-13
• Cato said “@Tapetum-Lucidum: Seems high. What have you learned? Also, what counts as “invasion”? For example, would an incursion by ground troops count if its objectives were limited and temporary (like a recapturing a defector)?” on 2020-07-14
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “Am I being held accountable? Ugh. ” on 2020-07-14
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “No, that would not count. Has to be multiple humans from NK military setting foot in SK, with intention of occupying territory until further notice. ” on 2020-07-14
• Deepak estimated 2% on 2020-07-14
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-07-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2020-07-15
• two2thehead estimated 2% on 2020-07-15
• Cato estimated 1% on 2020-07-15
• NickN estimated 1% on 2020-08-17
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2020-08-17
• Bruno Parga estimated 0% on 2020-09-13
• chemotaxis101 estimated 1% on 2020-09-13
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-12-13
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “Cato: if you really want to know, I figured KJU might consider doing it to help get Trump reelected, wartime president, etc. Figured it would just be a short term skirmish, with NK backing off after US election. ” on 2022-04-26
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “SK doesn’t have nukes, and DT could tell the military he’d handle thru diplomatic channels. Didn’t happen obviously, and i probably overstated the probability. Covid didn’t help either. ” on 2022-04-26

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