First SLS to fly by end of 2021.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 26% on 2020-06-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 23% on 2020-07-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 48% on 2020-08-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2020-08-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2020-09-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 56% on 2020-09-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 57% on 2020-10-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 54% and said “Reduced confidence based on Green Run delays. ” on 2020-10-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 48% on 2020-10-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 28% and said “Green run delays look like they are going to take way too much time. ” on 2020-10-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 17% and said “Updating based on https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/30/21726753/nasa-orion-crew-capsule-power-unit-failure-artemis-i . ” on 2020-12-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Based on https://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/astronomy/moon-exploration/artemis-missions.asp ” on 2020-12-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 14% and said “Updating on claimed it was a mistake https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1339259909356072973?s=19 . I suspect this was probably PR mistake rather than an incorrect statement, but unclear. ” on 2020-12-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 16% and said “https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2020/12/17/artemis-i-orion-progress-update/ Decision to fly with the power unit mentioned earlier. ” on 2020-12-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “Based on Green Run ending at around 1 minute out of the intended 8 minutes. ” on 2021-01-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2021-02-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 42% and said “Based on apparently successful Green Run. ” on 2021-03-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Based on https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/03/egs-aligns-artemis-1-schedule/ ” on 2021-03-28
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-01.