At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030.

Created by amrav 24 days ago; known on 2030-01-01

  • amrav estimated 70% 24 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 30% 24 days ago
  • amrav changed the deadline from “on 2030-01-01” and changed their prediction from “At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors.” 24 days ago
  • EloiseRosen said “as in new commits, or 50% of all code including pre-existing? 23 days ago
  • EloiseRosen said “Also for a clear resolution you should specify how this would be measured. Lines of code? # of commits? # of repos?23 days ago
  • amrav said “Measured by lines of code at HEAD across all repositories regardless of when they were created.Code generated by AI and reviewed by humans counts.23 days ago
  • amrav said “There’s no good way to do attribution right now for human-AI pair programming, I’m hoping this will change by 2030.23 days ago
  • amrav estimated 20% and said “Revising downwards after thinking about all the ways in which this could not happen because this is so specific. Eg generated code is not checked in / lives elsewhere / instructions are interpreted on the fly, or even github goes defunct.23 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 10% 21 days ago
  • wizzwizz4 estimated 5% and said “Updated up for a group of people deciding to auto-generate an absurd amount of code for the lolz, down for Microsoft trashing GitHub. But I think most generated code will be templated.18 days ago
  • azatris estimated 1% 14 days ago
  • MultiplyByZer0 estimated 1% 7 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 8% 7 days ago

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