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At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030.

Created by amrav on 2020-06-13; known on 2030-01-01

  • amrav estimated 70% on 2020-06-13
  • Baeboo estimated 30% on 2020-06-13
  • amrav changed the deadline from “on 2030-01-01” and changed their prediction from “At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors.” on 2020-06-13
  • EloiseRosen said “as in new commits, or 50% of all code including pre-existing? on 2020-06-14
  • EloiseRosen said “Also for a clear resolution you should specify how this would be measured. Lines of code? # of commits? # of repos?on 2020-06-14
  • amrav said “Measured by lines of code at HEAD across all repositories regardless of when they were created.Code generated by AI and reviewed by humans counts.on 2020-06-14
  • amrav said “There’s no good way to do attribution right now for human-AI pair programming, I’m hoping this will change by 2030.on 2020-06-14
  • amrav estimated 20% and said “Revising downwards after thinking about all the ways in which this could not happen because this is so specific. Eg generated code is not checked in / lives elsewhere / instructions are interpreted on the fly, or even github goes defunct.on 2020-06-14
  • Baeboo estimated 10% on 2020-06-16
  • wizzwizz4 estimated 5% and said “Updated up for a group of people deciding to auto-generate an absurd amount of code for the lolz, down for Microsoft trashing GitHub. But I think most generated code will be templated.on 2020-06-19
  • azatris estimated 1% on 2020-06-23
  • MultiplyByZer0 estimated 1% on 2020-06-30
  • Baeboo estimated 8% on 2020-06-30