Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-08-12.

  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 70% on 2020-06-15
  • HonoreDB estimated 28% on 2020-06-15
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 90% on 2020-06-16
  • sty.silver said “^ why?on 2020-06-16
  • pvoberstein estimated 40% on 2020-06-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2020-06-17
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “@sty: the three main topics of this election are likely to be police brutality, public health, and the economy. By my count, most VP candidates can help with at most of one of these issues. on 2020-06-18
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “For instance, Val Demings is one of the most credible VP candidates from the perspective of the first issue; she is black, she is a woman, she was a police chief, and she is currently a congresswoman. on 2020-06-18
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “For public health, most of the VP candidates who are promising are governors, but they are less well known, and may not help his prospects as much with the voting public, because of this. on 2020-06-18
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “In the longer term, Elizabeth Warren makes sense, from an economic policy standpoint: she cares about the well-being of the poor and middle class, and she has a wealth of policy experience.on 2020-06-18
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Stacy Abrams and Keisha Lance Bottoms are also contenders for the VP ticket. However, given that Joe Biden almost 78, it is possible that the VP would become president. on 2020-06-18
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Given that Abrams and Lance Bottoms have only had experience in the mayoral level and state legislature, this becomes a dicey proposition. For example, are they prepared to handle the economy, the coronavirus, police brutality, and foreign policy? on 2020-06-18
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “From my perspective, Elizabeth Warren is the most plausible choice from a policy perspective, although yes she is “old and white” and does not have the perspective of those who are not both of those. on 2020-06-18
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Val Demings is the second most likely, in my view, and would be first, if she had as much experience as Warren. on 2020-06-18
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Harris is not on the list at all, and for good reason. on 2020-06-18
  • sty.silver said “Thanks. I certainly hope you’re right. (Although being right by itself wouldn’t get you to 90%, you also need Biden to be savvy enough to conclude the same.)on 2020-06-18
  • JohnGreer estimated 30% on 2020-06-18
  • MultiplyByZer0 estimated 3% on 2020-06-20
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Just realized, this is a duplicate of https://predictionbook.com/predictions/198948on 2020-06-23
  • neilscott estimated 12% on 2020-06-23
  • azatris estimated 5% on 2020-06-23
  • nabokof estimated 35% on 2020-06-24
  • lettergram estimated 50% on 2020-06-28
  • abelriboulot estimated 8% on 2020-08-04
  • Baeboo estimated 5% on 2020-08-04
  • arrowinthedark estimated 0% and said “https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1293280411150217219on 2020-08-12
  • Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-08-12.

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