Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder

Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.

• enolan estimated 30% on 2020-06-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 18% on 2020-06-19
• MultiplyByZer0 estimated 80% on 2020-06-20
• Deepak estimated 60% and said “Third degree charge makes this seem more likely to me” on 2020-06-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% and said “Ironclad video evidence, a national outcry, a reckoning among major institutions; the only thing that could lead a non-guilty verdict is jury tampering.” on 2020-06-21
• JoshuaZ said “Overcharing is a definite problem here. The state statutes are pretty narrow. ” on 2020-06-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2020-06-23
• azatris estimated 60% on 2020-06-23
• enolan changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-17” on 2020-12-17
• jbeshir estimated 10% on 2021-01-24
• vcavallo estimated 40% and said “national reckoning / public outcry has no bearing on a criminal case.” on 2021-04-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2021-04-15
• jbeshir estimated 30% on 2021-04-18
• Deepak   judged this prediction right on 2021-04-20.