By June 2022, I judge that Human Challenge Trials are attributable to making the date I personally get a COVID-19 vaccine earlier than it otherwise would've been without Human Challenge Trials

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-20; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2022-06-06.

• peter_hurford estimated 10% on 2020-06-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2020-06-20
• peter_hurford   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-06-06.