Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01

  • InquilineKea estimated 40% on 2020-06-21
  • sty.silver estimated 10% on 2020-06-21
  • WilliamKiely estimated 8% and said “~ 12% risk of dying (base rate American 79-83yo male is ~22%). ~50% chance he’d resign before dying. ~2% risk of resigning for other reasons. (5 mins of thought on this Q.)on 2020-06-22
  • JoshuaZ estimated 9% on 2020-06-22
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Judging by the end date, I take it this prediction applies even if he wins two terms and resigns in the second one? on 2020-06-23
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 20% on 2020-06-23
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “If he wins, he probably won’t run for a second term, in my opinionon 2020-06-23
  • MultiplyByZer0 estimated 0% on 2020-06-30
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 5% 27 days ago
  • gwillen estimated 3% 24 days ago
  • azatris estimated 5% 19 days ago
  • amadeu estimated 7% 18 days ago

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