Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election

Created by InquilineKea 23 days ago; known on 2029-01-01

  • InquilineKea estimated 40% 23 days ago
  • sty.silver estimated 10% 23 days ago
  • WilliamKiely estimated 8% and said “~ 12% risk of dying (base rate American 79-83yo male is ~22%). ~50% chance he’d resign before dying. ~2% risk of resigning for other reasons. (5 mins of thought on this Q.)22 days ago
  • JoshuaZ estimated 9% 22 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Judging by the end date, I take it this prediction applies even if he wins two terms and resigns in the second one? 21 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 20% 21 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “If he wins, he probably won’t run for a second term, in my opinion21 days ago
  • MultiplyByZer0 estimated 0% 14 days ago
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 5% 6 days ago
  • gwillen estimated 3% 3 days ago

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