Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01

• InquilineKea estimated 40% on 2020-06-21
• sty.silver estimated 10% on 2020-06-21
• WilliamKiely estimated 8% and said “~ 12% risk of dying (base rate American 79-83yo male is ~22%). ~50% chance he’d resign before dying. ~2% risk of resigning for other reasons. (5 mins of thought on this Q.)” on 2020-06-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 9% on 2020-06-22
• PseudonymousUser said “Judging by the end date, I take it this prediction applies even if he wins two terms and resigns in the second one? ” on 2020-06-23
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2020-06-23
• PseudonymousUser said “If he wins, he probably won’t run for a second term, in my opinion” on 2020-06-23
• MultiplyByZer0 estimated 0% on 2020-06-30
• chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2020-07-08
• gwillen estimated 3% on 2020-07-11
• azatris estimated 5% on 2020-07-16
• amadeu estimated 7% on 2020-07-17
• NickN estimated 5% on 2020-08-30