Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT

Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.

• akarlin estimated 40% on 2020-06-23
• sty.silver estimated 15% and said “I assume this resolves as false if there is no article at all in 15 days.” on 2020-06-23
• Adam Zerner estimated 70% on 2020-06-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2020-06-23
• Baeboo estimated 10% on 2020-06-23
• azatris estimated 25% on 2020-06-24
• Deepak estimated 20% on 2020-06-24
• kruasan estimated 99% on 2020-06-25
• enolan estimated 80% and said “my intuition is that the times wants to appear immune to outside pressure.” on 2020-06-26
• jbeshir estimated 27% on 2020-06-26
• chemotaxis101 estimated 45% on 2020-06-30
• qznc estimated 50% on 2020-06-30
• Baeboo estimated 14% on 2020-07-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% and said “They’ll take the hint and not publish his name. However, if the Times digs up information about Alexander that’s more newsworthy than his blog, then his name’s going into print.” on 2020-07-01
• Baeboo estimated 20% on 2020-07-01
• Baeboo estimated 30% on 2020-07-02
• Deepak   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-07-08.
• 1MillionAffen   judged this prediction right on 2021-06-22.
• 1MillionAffen said “Well, he was doxxed in the end …” on 2021-06-22