Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020.
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
- jbeshir estimated 30% on 2020-06-26
- srconstantin estimated 70% on 2020-06-29
- MikeMitchell estimated 70% on 2020-06-30
- Baeboo estimated 16% on 2020-06-30
- Baeboo estimated 22% on 2020-07-01
- Baeboo estimated 35% on 2020-07-02
- Baeboo estimated 38% on 2020-07-02
- chemotaxis101 estimated 45% on 2020-07-08
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 60% on 2020-07-09
- gwillen estimated 25% on 2020-07-11
- Baeboo estimated 15% on 2020-07-11
- ayegill estimated 30% on 2020-07-16
- amadeu estimated 30% on 2020-07-17
- Baeboo estimated 11% on 2020-07-19
- Deepak estimated 5% on 2020-07-19
- Baeboo estimated 4% on 2020-07-28
- overtone estimated 2% on 2020-07-31
- Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-07-31
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% on 2020-07-31
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-07-31
- ayegill judged this prediction wrong on 2020-08-01.