A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.

Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.

• krazemon estimated 30% on 2020-06-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% and said “Lotsa people working on different approaches, seems likely something will work by then. Not sure when it would be approved, but seems likely the prez would fast track it even if it’s risky. ” on 2020-06-29
• srconstantin estimated 5% and said “Moderna is the farthest along and they have planned a 1-year follow-up for their phase III trial.” on 2020-06-29
• PseudonymousUser estimated 30% and said “Yes, a vaccine will be available, but it won’t be available to the public until much, much later into the year. You have to help the rich and powerful first.” on 2020-07-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2020-07-08
• wizzwizz4 estimated 25% and said “I think people will mess around with the vaccine for political reasons, but I doubt they’d get as many as 10 000 people involved.” on 2020-07-09
• Deepak estimated 10% on 2020-07-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2020-08-12
• NickN estimated 3% on 2020-08-16
• Deepak said “I believe this should resolve as true according to krazemon’s definition; over 10,000 people in the US did indeed receive the vaccine outside of clinical trials as part of a phased rollout.” on 2021-02-03
• Deepak   judged this prediction right on 2021-02-03.
• krazemon said “I agree with Deepak.” on 2021-02-18