The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-01; known on 2021-07-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-28.

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2020-07-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 46% and said “Updating based on stages 1,2 3 now successful https://twitter.com/NASA_SLS/status/1281317235013844992?s=09 ” on 2020-07-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 44% on 2020-07-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 29% on 2020-08-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2020-08-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 16% on 2020-09-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 14% on 2020-09-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 13% and said “Updating again per https://twitter.com/JimBridenstine/status/1305628680052498434 ” on 2020-09-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Updating per sixth stage successful. ” on 2020-10-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2020-10-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Back up per possible delays ” on 2020-10-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% and said “Green Run seems to have gone smoothly but analysis of data is still ongoing. ” on 2021-03-21
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-03-28.