Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-09; known in 15 days

  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% on 2020-07-09
  • gwillen estimated 50% on 2020-07-11
  • amadeu estimated 35% on 2020-07-17
  • EloiseRosen estimated 20% on 2020-07-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2020-07-18
  • unexpectedEOF estimated 60% on 2020-08-19
  • NickN estimated 10% on 2020-08-30
  • PlacidPlatypus said “538 currently has 30% chance of a 10 point margin, so I’m still feeling good about a 40% chance of 8.30 days ago
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 50% and said “538 now showing Biden up 10% in the national polling average and 8% in the average case popular vote projection.12 days ago
  • JoshuaZ estimated 32% 12 days ago

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