Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.

• PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% on 2020-07-09
• gwillen estimated 50% on 2020-07-11
• amadeu estimated 35% on 2020-07-17
• EloiseRosen estimated 20% on 2020-07-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2020-07-18
• unexpectedEOF estimated 60% on 2020-08-19
• NickN estimated 10% on 2020-08-30
• PlacidPlatypus said “538 currently has 30% chance of a 10 point margin, so I’m still feeling good about a 40% chance of 8.” on 2020-09-21
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 50% and said “538 now showing Biden up 10% in the national polling average and 8% in the average case popular vote projection.” on 2020-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2020-10-10
• amadeu estimated 1% on 2020-11-09
• PlacidPlatypus said “Still some votes being counted but it seems safe to say this isn’t happening at this point.” on 2020-12-04
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-12-04.