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India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-08-03.

  • sam_jaques estimated 15% on 2020-08-03
  • NickN estimated 10% on 2020-08-18
  • Bruno Parga estimated 1% and said “One nuclear state invading another? I find that difficult.on 2020-09-13
  • Deepak said “Probably should clarify where is being measured here. There are places where the LAC is over 100 km from either India’s or China’s claimed borders, so depending on what counts as a battle, this may already have happened..on 2020-09-13
  • sam_jaques said “I meant this to represent situations where the fighting is more than border skirmishes, so please take “border” to mean LACon 2020-12-04
  • Deepak estimated 2% on 2020-12-05
  • platypus42 estimated 5% on 2020-12-09
  • stepan estimated 0% on 2021-07-26
  • sam_jaques   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-08-03.