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[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] …narrowly by Joe Biden. His popular vote win will be massive but due to voter suppression and structural advantages his electoral college margin will be small.

Created by on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

  • estimated 70% on 2020-08-04
  • Bruno Parga said “I’d say this is wrong. Is a 4.5% popular vote margin ‘massive’? Is a 74 electoral vote margin ‘small’?on 2020-12-09
  • sty.silver said “I think the spirit of the prediction is correct (the win was narrow, it wasn’t narrow in popular vote), but as-is, it’s false. His electoral college margin (which is not a good metric) was really not small.on 2020-12-10
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.